Has change in military command prompted
Zardari’s return?
Tariq Butt
ISLAMABAD:
Former President Asif Ali Zardari has based his scheduled return to Pakistan on
Friday after eighteen months’ self-exile upon the premise that circumstances
have greatly transformed with the change of military command.
Apparently he
believes that since his hard-hitting speech targeting the then Chief of Army
Staff, Raheel Sharif, without naming him, saying that they are here to stay
just for three years while politicians will always remain in the field, he will
not be in trouble after the outgoing top commander had hung up his boots and a
new man has come in.
How far
Zardari’s assumption will be true and favourable for him is anybody’s guess.
Only time will make it evident what transpires for him in the days to come in this
connection. However, after he realized the grave implications of his remarks
and the consternation these have caused in the concerned quarters, he had
tempered them saying he did not mean what was generally understood. He may have
learnt a lesson and is now expected to be more circumspect while speaking on
this subject.
This factor
apart, there has been no significant change in ground realities for the PPP in
Zardari’s prolonged absence from Pakistan. His close friend, Dr Asim Hussain,
continues to be behind bars, facing trial on a host of criminal charges, and
some other PPP leaders are on the run due to the fear of being caught by
authorities on corruption charges. To give his telling response in his own
unique style, he has appointed Dr Asim Hussain president of the PPP, Karachi
division, the first ever party position allocated to him.
Bilawal has
been working hard to retrieve the PPP’s lost glory but has not been very
successful although he has infused confidence in the party’s rank and file to
some extent. But at the same time, some of his political remarks reflect his
immaturity and infantile behaviour.
However,
Bilawal has still to do a lot of work to revive the party, which continues to
be in a very bad shape especially in Punjab. In the interior parts of Sindh, it
is a different ballgame as the PPP faces no formidable challenge from any
political force. It still has a firm grip over this region regardless of the
fact that Zardari is in Pakistan or abroad, and also whether Bilawal has lifted
the party or not.
A big question
that circulates in many minds is whether or not the stigma of worst governance
and alleged corruption that Zardari carried because of his five-year misrule is
still fresh in the mind of the electorate has disappeared. The answer is in the
negative. Additionally, the PPP’s space has been largely effectively captured
by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Only two parties are talked about when
the Punjab politics is discussed and the PPP doesn’t find even a slight mention
in such debate. How far Zardari will make his party relevant is still an open
question.
The main
challenge before Zardari and his PPP is to take back the space that the PTI has
seized. Even when the former president returns, there are no signs that the PPP
is in a position to get back the lost position. Moreover, there is no
possibility that with Zardari’s presence in Pakistan, the PPP will be able to
cobble together an alliance with other some other political parties worth the
name to post a serious threat to the Nawaz Sharif government. Its relations
with the PTI are unlikely to see any change.
Zardari’s
primary concern will be to brace up for the next general elections with the
resolve to drastically improve on the PPP’s highly pathetic performance that it
demonstrated in the 2013 polls. This period will provide him an opportunity to
ponder and prepare for the grand electoral fight.
Zardari was
the sole decision-maker in matters relating to the PPP as well as the Sindh
government while being abroad and Bilawal was just a figurehead. In this sense,
his arrival in Pakistan will hardly make any difference.
In his
absence, a cluster of PPP leaders portrayed that Bilawal was now an independent
decision-maker and not dependent on Zardari. They gave this impression stressing
that it was better to keep the former president aside if the PPP’s state was to
be improved. Now, they will be uneasy as he will be amongst them.
Anyway,
Zardari’s homecoming from self-exile has belied the predictions and claims of a
number of his detractors that he would never return to Pakistan. In fact, he
had been looking for an opportune time to come back, and he has found the
present timing for it.
